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On October 10, the California Department of Public Health issued an advisory notifying the public of three confirmed cases of “severe mpox” (formerly monkeypox) infections. As of December 10, all three individuals have fully recovered while additional cases continue to be reported across the country, particularly in New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles. George Mason University emerging disease epidemiologist and Professor Amira Roess eases concerns about the risk of another infectious disease outbreak this cold and flu season.
For background about the previous mpox outbreak, see additional tipsheets by Roess:
Is this strain of mpox different?
Mpox is a rare disease that is caused by infection with mpox virus, a member of the Orthopoxvirus genus, the same “family” of viruses as smallpox. There are two types of mpox, clade I and clade II. There is no difference between the clades in terms of spread, prevention, and treatment, however, clade I is considered the more severe of the two.
The outbreak in 2022 was clade II. The recent cases in California have been identified as clade I, which is technically the more dangerous of the two with a higher mortality rate. Still, less than 0.5% of people die from clade I mpox.
Should I be worried about contracting mpox?
Risk of contracting mpox remains low for the general population. Historically, we don’t see very large outbreaks due to the nature of transmission requiring such close contact and so far this has not changed. Infected individuals don't generally have close contact with many people outside of their household.
It is important to note that, like with many other infectious diseases, the risk of severe disease and hospitalization are highest for people with weakened immune systems.
Will there be another, or even larger, mpox outbreak?
The risk of a large-scale outbreak of mpox is no greater now than the previous mpox outbreak in 2022. While it can be more deadly, clade I is not more transmissible than clade II. Transmission of mpox is the same for both clades I and II.
Both types of mpox spread through close physical contact with someone who is infected, their bodily fluids, or contact with bedding, linens, towels, or similar material that has come in contact with the infected individual. Close physical contact with someone can mean sex, but the virus can also spread from close dancing, hugging, or any other contact that leads to close skin-to-skin contact.
What are the signs and symptoms of mpox?
The symptoms can vary. Within three weeks of exposure, many people have a fever, headaches, and/or body aches. Often, they'll have swollen lymph nodes. Typically, individuals with mpox will also develop a rash that looks like pimples or pox lesions, and it is often found in the areas where that initial skin-to-skin contact or exposure may have occurred. View all the symptoms on the CDC website here.
How can I prevent the spread of mpox?
Treatment and prevention of both clades I and II mpox are the same. The mpox vaccine is effective for both clades.
You can reduce your chances of catching or spreading mpox by reducing the number of individuals that you have close personal contact with. If you get mpox, isolate and immediately notify anyone you might have close contact with so that they can also take precautions.
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MEDIA INQUIRIES: For reporters who wish to speak to Amira Roess about mpox or other infectious diseases, please email media contact Michelle Thompson at mthomp7@gmu.edu.
Amira Roess is a professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University's College of Public Health, Department of Global and Community Health. She is an epidemiologist with expertise in infectious diseases epidemiology, multidisciplinary and multi-species field research and evaluating interventions to reduce the transmission and impact of infectious diseases. Roess currently oversees several longitudinal studies to understand emergence and transmission of zoonotic infectious diseases globally, including the emergence and transmission of Campylobacter (with support from The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation), MERS-CoV (with support from the U.S. National Science Foundation), and the development of the microbiome during the first year of life. She studies links between food animal production and emerging infectious and zoonotic diseases emergence globally, and mHealth (especially apps) technology integration and evaluations to reduce the impact of infectious disease outbreaks, promote health care, and help reduce disparities.
About George Mason University
George Mason University is Virginia’s largest public research university. Located near Washington, D.C., Mason enrolls more than 40,000 students from 130 countries and all 50 states. Mason has grown rapidly over the past half-century and is recognized for its innovation and entrepreneurship, remarkable diversity, and commitment to accessibility. In 2023, the university launched Mason Now: Power the Possible, a one-billion-dollar comprehensive campaign to support student success, research, innovation, community, and stewardship. Learn more at gmu.edu.
About College of Public Health at George Mason University
The College of Public Health at George Mason University is the first College of Public Health in Virginia and a national leader in inclusive, interprofessional, public health research, education, and practice. The college is comprised of public health disciplines, health administration and policy, informatics, nursing, nutrition, and social work. The college offers a distinct array of degrees to support research and training of professionals dedicated to ensuring health and well-being for all. The college’s transdisciplinary research seeks to understand the many factors that influence the public’s health and well-being throughout the lifespan.
Thumbnail photo from National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases via Unsplash.