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Virginia stands at a turning point. Electricity demand—driven by the unprecedented rise of artificial intelligence and the data centers that fuel it—is climbing faster than the state can build new power generation. A new report from George Mason University’s Center for Energy Science and Policy (CESP) at the Schar School of Policy and Government warns that this collision of growth and limited capacity has created a “once-in-a-generation potential energy crisis.”
The numbers revealed in “Virginia Energy Report: Policy Roadmap for the Commonwealth” are sobering. The study is available to the public at this website.
“The lack of sufficient energy generation sources in Virginia has moved Virginia to the state with the highest net electricity imports in the country,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is more than a statistic—it’s a flashing red warning light. Every new data center adds strain to a grid already stretched thin, and every month, household power bills inch higher.
Paul Bubbosh, a Schar School adjunct professor and director of the Local Climate Action Planning Initiative in CESP, summed up the findings bluntly:
“Virginia faces a potential energy crisis due to increased energy demand from data centers powering AI and the lack of new generation to meet this demand,” he said. “We find that a three-prong approach is necessary to avoid a potential energy crisis.”
That three-pronged approach offers a path forward.
“First, fast-tracking clean energy generation is critical, but solar and natural gas will face significant headwinds due to the withdrawal of federal incentives and supply chain constraints,” he said. “Legislators often over-focus on building new generation which runs a risk of overbuilding large energy projects that Virginians must pay for.”
The report points to a smarter, more balanced way to close the gap between supply and demand.
The second prong: “Significant savings can be achieved at much lower cost with energy efficiencies and demand-side management programs, which Virginia is not utilizing to its fullest potential,” Bubbosh said.
And the third recommendation may be the easiest—and most powerful.
“Third, the most often overlooked policy strategy is often the simplest approach: educating its population about the benefits of cleaner energy sources and energy efficiency programs,” he said.
George Mason’s CESP pioneered the development and implementation of Local Energy Action Plans (LEAP)—the first university in the commonwealth to work with municipalities outside its home base to successfully assist rural municipalities to develop and implement energy action goals, strategies, and actions. Last year the cities of Danville and Martinsville and Henry County announced the completion of the Energy Action Plans recommended by LEAP.
This emphasis on education and community engagement is where the report’s optimism shines through. The Local Energy Action Plan model has already proven effective in helping Virginia towns craft achievable energy goals. The new report envisions scaling that success statewide through collaboration among policymakers, utilities, and citizens.
Ultimately, this is not just about kilowatts—it’s about keeping Virginia’s economy resilient, its grid reliable, and its future sustainable. The report’s authors call for “coalition-building between top-down leadership and bottom-up grassroots efforts,” with the goal of aligning technology, policy, and people. As Bubbosh notes, the challenge is formidable, but the path forward is clear—and still within reach.
The research for the study was provided by 12 current and former students—graduate and undergraduate—from colleges across George Mason’s campuses, including the Schar School, the College of Science, the School of Integrative Studies, and the Costello College of Business. The work was part of a class-based project for the Schar School’s pioneering Energy/Climate Law and Policy course. Several of the students have advanced as resident or nonresident fellows in CESP.