A George Mason University professor of modern European history says that while European Union leaders have postponed a “no deal” Brexit catastrophe by giving British politicians time to reconsider their country’s exit from the EU, a non-deal could still upend relations on both sides of the Atlantic.
Kevin Matthews, who specializes in British history and politics, said with the British Parliament deeply divided over Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to take Britain out of the EU by the March 29 deadline, leaders of the other 27 EU member states have given her until April 12 to convince members of parliament (MPs) to back her deal.
But while May has concentrated on winning over opponents in her own Conservative Party, said Matthews, she is ignoring MPs who represent parts of the UK where opposition to Brexit is accompanied by calls for independence from the British union itself.
“May is obsessed with appeasing hardline Conservative Brexiters,” said Matthews. “She’s ignoring MPs from the Scottish National Party and the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru party. If economic forecasters are right, Brexit will deliver a blow to the UK economy that’s sure to provoke demands from both parties for independence votes.”
This would have a direct impact on United States security, Matthews pointed out, because Britain’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent is based on Scotland. “The UK is America’s most reliable ally,” Matthews said. As well as being a NATO partner, Britain is also one of the “Five Eyes”—an exclusive intelligence alliance of these two powers, along with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
“No one seems to be thinking about how a breakup of the UK will affect western defense,” Matthews said. “The only winner in this scenario would be Vladimir Putin.”
Then there’s Northern Ireland, said Matthews, although the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs support Brexit, a majority in the six counties want to stay in the EU. All sides agree there should be no “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the southern Republic of Ireland, an EU member, he said. Such a border risks the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended the “Troubles”—a 30-year conflict that claimed more than 3,500 lives.
Matthews said that maintaining an open border has become the major sticking point in May’s proposal. Hardline Brexiters in her Conservative Party claim the so-called “Irish backstop,” an insurance policy to maintain an open border, will keep the UK tied to the EU.
“There’s no way to square this circle,” said Matthews. “What’s ironic is that, more than any other political party, the Conservatives were responsible for the Irish partition a hundred years ago. Now, it’s come back to haunt them.”
Kevin Matthews can be reached at 703-993-1250 or cmatthe2@gmu.edu.
For more information, contactMary Lee Clark at 703-993-5118 or mclark35@gmu.edu.
About George Mason
George Mason University is Virginia’s largest public research university. Located near Washington, D.C., Mason enrolls 37,000 students from 130 countries and all 50 states. Mason has grown rapidly over the past half-century and is recognized for its innovation and entrepreneurship, remarkable diversity and commitment to accessibility.