It is commonplace to say that the European Union (EU) is in crisis. The euro crisis struck nearly a decade ago, and is still not entirely resolved. The battle between the European Commission and the current, populist Italian government, over the size of Italy’s projected budget deficit, is a reminder that the foundations of Economic and Monetary Union—the policy framework for the single currency—remain unstable. Politically, the migration crisis is more potent than ever before, despite a dramatic decrease in the number of irregular migrants entering the EU since the peak of August-September 2015.
Not unrelated to the euro and migration crises, an ominous gap is opening among member states between defenders of the EU’s democratic norms and values, and politicians who pander to popular concerns, exploit a pervasive sense of unease, and describe democracy in ways that are inconsistent with its definition in the EU Treaty. The growing rift within the EU between defenders and detractors of liberal democracy—personified by French President Emmanuel Macron, on the one hand, and Hungarian President Viktor Orban, on the other—is a cause of great distress.
And then there is Brexit. Even the most ardent United Kingdom opponents of the EU (known as Euroskeptics) were surprised by the outcome of the 2016 referendum, which resulted in a narrow majority in favor of Britain’s departure. Two years later, the negotiations between the British government and the 27 other EU member states are coming up against a firm deadline: March 29, 2019, when Britain will no longer be a member of the EU. The purpose of the negotiations is to reach an agreement to facilitate the best possible separation of the UK from the EU, thereby avoiding the massive disruption that would likely follow a “hard” departure. Brexit is tearing UK politics and society apart. Even with a comprehensive agreement, the economic impact of Brexit on the UK is likely to be highly damaging.
The other member states regret that the UK has chosen to leave, but remain firmly committed to the EU. Despite the lingering euro crisis, the persistent migration crisis, and the sharp political divide between Macron and Orban (and those who support the positions that each represents), not a single one of the remaining member states is seriously considering following the UK’s example. Although Euroskepticism exists in most EU countries, it largely takes the form of criticism of EU policies and institutions rather than outright rejection of the EU itself. Despite their fervent denunciations of “Brussels,” the seat of the EU, most populist politicians and parties want their countries to remain in the EU.
Why? Because the EU provides a framework for economic activity and soft security that remains preferable to the alternative of non-EU membership. Political and business elites in the UK agree, but feel bound by the outcome of the referendum, despite revelations since that time that many Brexiters did not understand the complexity of the issue, and that there was outside interference in the run-up to the referendum.
The single market is the EU’s core policy field. It allows goods, services, workers, and capital to move freely within the EU. It is a boon to consumers and business alike, although as in any political system, vested interests compete over how the marketplace should be regulated and managed. A common trade policy is the external corollary of the internal market. It gives the EU considerable leverage in bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations. Whereas many Brexiters complained that the common commercial policy stifled UK trade opportunities throughout the world, the remaining member states are satisfied with the benefits of collective EU action.
The EU is a security community—not a military security organization, but a community of like-minded countries whose overall security is enhanced by virtue of participation in the single market and other socio-economic policy fields, and by virtue of close cooperation on internal affairs (such as police cooperation and anti-terrorism) and external relations (going well beyond trade policy). In view of Russia’s increasing hostility toward the EU, and the U.S. President’s open disdain for the EU, member states appreciate more and more the importance of sticking together in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world. Like any political entity—national or supranational—the EU is far from perfect. But as many Britons now realize, EU membership has its advantages.
Despite the problems that it currently faces, the EU still matters.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Desmond Dinan, Professor of Public Policy and an International Commerce and Policy faculty member at the Schar School of Policy and Government, was the inaugural Visiting Fellow at the European Parliamentary Research Service, in Brussels, from January to July 2018.